The Return of Intelligent Wagon Wheels
They are more intelligent now and talk about some new values.
We discussed a new wagon wheel and a way to quantify a batter’s 360-degree ability in one of my pieces earlier (I would suggest to read this first). One thing I felt missing was to really give a feel of the numbers. The 360-degree ability score we talked about was a combination of the ability to play difficult shots and access all parts of the ground. But the final score simply didn’t give a sense of which batter belongs on which side. That’s the aim with this one, to study these two seperately.
GROUND COVERAGE AND AUDACITY
These are two names I have given to the two abilities mentioned above.
Ground coverage tells us the percentage of the circle where a batter is able to play at more than 90% of his maximum shot-making ability consistently. In simple terms, it’s a 90th percentile shot difficulty boundary region (regions of strength) divided by the whole circle circumference, and is a measure of how uniformly the shot making strength is distributed around the ground. Note that this value has nothing to do with the absolute value of shot making strength. We learn about that from audacity. Audacity is just the mean length of all shots. As the name suggests, it is the ability to produce shots which are not very natural to play on a particular line-length pair.


Now going further deep into these values, we find that a good ground coverage and a good audacity are actually two different styles of play, and very few are able to master both without over-depending on one. But that does not mean over-dependence is a negative trait. Some players make up for their low value in one aspect comfortably with the other. AB de Villiers, for example, was pretty low in ground coverage in T20s. But that is because he didn’t need to go towards off a lot due to his audacity on the leg side. Good ground coverage has more to do with singles and doubles. It’s about hitting in those pockets, finding gaps. Six hitters are usually audacious; they have one or two primary target zones and try to position themselves in a way to be able to hit them. And this is why they need to get creative with their shot-making because all lines and lengths won’t allow them that. We can also see this in the average of these values for T20s and ODIs. For all batters playing at least 1500 deliveries, ODI had an average ground coverage of 44.68% with an audacity of 3.19. For T20s, these values were 34.55 and 3.93.
Here are two examples explaining it further –
Buttler vs Surya: Coverage vs Audacity
Two of the elites of 360-degree ability, but both of them lie on opposite sides of the spectrum. While for Surya the deep square to deep fine leg region is the region of playing audacious shots at will (longer length vectors), Buttler believes more in exploring a bit of every corner (higher coverage). Buttler accesses some lesser-visited territories with his ramps and scoops, but they are length-dependent. Surya has various adjustments to hit a six over deep fine, thus reducing the reliance on the delivery.
Russell vs Karthik: Strength vs Skill
Two finishers with a very different style. When compared to a batter like Karthik, Russell relies more on power. Russell is the master of cow corner. A good powerful swing with half-decent timing is more than enough irrespective of the delivery. Karthik though doesn't have that option. Being a leg-side dominant player, he has to open more of it than just the cow corner. And that's where his skill comes into play.
DIFFICULT SHOT EFFECT
Another important question these numbers can answer for a batter is – is the risk worth it? Which batter benefits from displaying some funkiness and who should probably stick to sensibility. This can be known through difficult shot effect. It is the ratio of boundary percentage on difficult shots and the overall boundary percentage. A difficult shot is a shot where a batter accessed a region which had less than 50% chance of being hit in. Difficult shot effect thus tells us if a player’s boundary percentage improves on playing an unnatural shot or not.
(Players with >=2000 balls faced were considered)
Players like Pandey, Iyer, Smith might need some innovation time to time to get their boundaries. Powerplay probably helps openers like Rohit, Roy, Hales providing a lot of open areas, and they have done well utilising them.
Numbers discourage Pooran, Rahul, Gill from playing difficult shots. They are better when putting balls in their designated areas.
That’s all I had to say in this one. Would love to engage in discussions or answer any questions. Hope you liked the piece and do subscribe if you haven’t. Thanks.
Interesting metrics. Ground coverage/area of strength makes sense, but that graphic isn't the easiest to follow. Longer red lines mean more boundaries in that region? Then what does the blue indicate?
Also, curious to understand how you calculated the difficulty of a shot. Is the line and length taken into consideration? For a spinner, is the direction of turn taken into consideration?